2006 Predictions

I was planning to put off any predictions until October or so to increase my chance of getting them right, but in the end I decided to bite the bullet and venture a few now.

• The first real mainstream DRM backlash will take place, as consumers realize that music they have bought on various online stores doesn’t play anymore when they buy an MP3 player from another vendor. Apple will make a gesture towards interoperability but try to hold onto its proprietary advantage as long as possible.
• Portable electronic reading devices will begin to make their presence known, and it will finally dawn on forward-thinking publishers that their current business model (subsidizing their online offering by selling pulped dead trees) is doomed to extinction.
• Google will stumble as it struggles to cope with hypergrowth and move beyond its advertising-dominated business model. Its stock price will be lower at year end 2006 than it was when the year began.
• Firefox will break the 20% barrier in browser market share, in large part due to bundling agreements with PC manufacturers.
• At least one application based on Mozilla’s nascent XULRunner platform will achieve widespread adoption.

That’s all I’ve got, folks. Most of the really cool stuff will have to wait until 2007.

Update: Actually here’s another one: despite competition from Digg and other upstarts, Slashdot will remain the king of geek news sites in 2006. Their community and moderation system are simply too well-developed to be easily duplicated. But if they’re smart (note the hedging) they will start to dip their toe in the murky waters of community-driven story selection, perhaps by setting up a special “readers’ picks” page.

Bookmark to:

5 Comments »

1. Its stock price will be lower at year end 2006 than it was when the year began.
   Um, I also predict that the sky will be blue. Google’s stock will either fall due to overvaluation (likely), or it will be split.
   it will finally dawn on forward-thinking publishers that their current business model … is doomed to extinction.
   You give them too much credit. It will take more than another year for this to happen. They are still to this day pumping money into lobbying Congress for a legislative solution.

   Comment by mwarden — 1/14/2006 @ 10:26 pm

2. Fair enough. I should have said the stock price will be lower split-adjusted.

   Comment by Matt — 1/15/2006 @ 1:09 am

3. […] ser market share, in large part due to bundling agreements with PC manufacturers.” - Peer Pressure “The number of bloggers worldwide will exceed 150 million. The area […]

   Pingback by 0rbit Now! » 2006 Predictions — 1/24/2006 @ 7:26 pm

4. […] if they felt this would offer them a competitive advantage. In fact, I predicted this would happen back in January 2006, and I’ve been sorely disappointed (for reasons I don’t entirely grasp). […]

   Pingback by How to Save the Web, Part Three: Opera’s Litigation · Get Latest Mozilla Firefox Browsers — 12/14/2007 @ 11:04 pm

5. […] they felt that would offer them a competitive advantage. In fact, I predicted that would happen back in January 2006, and I’ve been sorely disappointed (for reasons I don’t entirely grasp). […]

   Pingback by How to Save the Web, Part Three: Opera’s LitigationPeer Pressure | Techitorial Gadget Reviews and Tech Updates — 12/15/2007 @ 12:30 pm

Trackback URL RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>