Ripe Apple
I anticipated a trend with my previous post about the rise of Apple at the expense of Microsoft. A couple of days later RoughlyDrafted ran a similarly themed but much more detailed story that seems to pin the blame for Microsoft’s decline on its complacency and a crisis of leadership, the same factors that sent Apple into a tailspin two decades ago. The analysis makes for good reading, though there is one glaring factual error:
In contrast, there has been one CEO of Microsoft since 1984: Steve Ballmer. Along with Chairman Bill Gates, Ballmer has always set the course for the company, giving Microsoft a singular personality in contrast to the turbulent changes during Apple’s middle decade.
Actually, Bill Gates was CEO of Microsoft for most of its existence. Ballmer took over in 2000, and arguably the company’s real woes started at about that time. Gates is an exceptional individual who always commanded unquestioned authority, a must for running a large and complex organization. Ballmer was a good right-hand man but, by many accounts, an inadequate replacement for Gates in the corner office. This mistake is surprising since the true story actually supports the author’s thesis (which I also subscribe to) that Microsoft’s problems are largely due to management issues. (And considering Gates’s iconic status throughout the 80’s and 90’s, it’s hard for me to believe that anyone could think that “Ballmer has always set the course for the company.” Am I really that old?)
Another recent article credits Apple’s growing market share on the halo effect of Apple’s celebrated consumer electronics devices, a point I also mentioned. The author points out that this effect is likely to grow with the launch of the iPhone. I’ve spoken in the past about the tendency of exponential curves to appear linear in the early stages. There’s probably a magic market share number that will cause the Mac to “tip” and really take off. It’s hard to say what this number might be, but it’s looking more and more likely that Apple is going to hit it at some point.
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rubbish
Comment by bob trolop — 3/12/2007 @ 11:51 am